Date

First Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May Data)
2010 Sea Ice Outlook
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Outlook submission deadline: Monday, 31 May 2010

For further information about the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

Or contact: Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Or: Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the
first SIO monthly report of the 2010 season, to be released in June
(based on May data). This is the third year of the SIO effort and we
encourage past and new contributors to participate. Further information
about the SIO is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/.

The submission deadline for the first report is Monday, 31 May 2010.

The SIO is an international effort to provide a community-wide summary
of the expected September arctic sea ice minimum. Monthly reports
released throughout the summer synthesize community estimates of the
current state and expected minimum of sea ice at both pan-arctic and
regional scales. Contributors are invited to submit either pan-arctic
and/or regional outlooks for the first monthly report.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
    ice extent (in million square kilometers). For reference, the arctic sea
    ice monthly mean extent for September 2009 was 5.36 million square
    kilometers, the third lowest in the satellite record.

  2. Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
    two or three sentences.

Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the word OUTLOOK in
the subject line, to:
Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

    Arctic Regions

    • Sea of Okhotsk
    • Bering Sea
    • Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
    • East Siberian-Laptev Seas
    • Kara and Barents Seas
    • High Arctic (north of 85N)
    • Greenland Sea
    • Baffin Bay -- Labrador Sea
    • Hudson Bay

    Shipping Routes

    • Northwest Passage
    • Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
    • Arctic Bridge (Murmansk -- Churchill)

  2. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phenological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
    than those of summer 2009.

  3. Outline of Methods / Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the
    estimate.

  4. Estimate of Forecast Skill (Optional)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty,
    or error associated with your prediction.

  5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

Regional Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the words
REGIONAL OUTLOOK in the subject line, to:
Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Or: Adrienne Tivy
Email: ativy [at] iarc.uaf.edu

The submission deadline for the June report is Monday, 31 May 2010.

REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON RELEVANT DATA RESOURCES
We are also soliciting data resources (e.g., web links to sea ice
products, data sources, graphics) that may be useful to Outlook
contributors; these resources will be listed on the SIO website. If you
have a resource to contribute, please email the information to Helen
Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office at ARCUS: helen [at] arcus.org.

FOR MORE INFORMATION
Further information about the Sea Ice Outlook is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

More information about the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook reports is
available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/siwo.

Or by contacting:
Jim Overland, Core Integration Group Lead
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Hajo Eicken, Core Integration Group
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Helen Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office
Email: helen [at] arcus.org