Call for SEARCH Sea Ice Outlooks - August Report

Call for Sea Ice Outlooks
September 2009 Sea Ice Outlook: August Report
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Outlook Submission Deadline: Tuesday, 4 August 2009

For further information about the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook

Or contact:
Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Or:
Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Organizers of the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice
Outlook (SIO) are now soliciting outlooks for the August Report. We are
especially encouraging contributors to share perspectives on how current
ice or ocean conditions and weather are likely to impact the September
minimum with respect to timing (earlier or later than normal) or
regional anomalies. If you participated in the June and July Outlooks
and do not have any changes, please send an email stating that your
outlook remains the same. The deadline for submissions is Tuesday, 4
August 2009. Further information about the SIO is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

SUBMITTING AN OUTLOOK
Outlook contributions should include:
1. Extent Projection
Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
ice extent (in million square kilometers). For reference, the arctic sea
ice monthly mean extent for September 2008 was 4.7 million square
kilometers; in September 2007, it was 4.3 million square kilometers.

2. Methods / Techniques
   Provide the type or method of your estimate (heuristic, statistical,
   ice-ocean model ensemble runs, etc.).

3. Rationale
   Please include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the word OUTLOOK in
the subject line, to:
Jim Overland
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

REGIONAL OUTLOOK SUBMISSIONS
Regional Outlook submissions should include:
1. Region of Interest
While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
specify which of the five main arctic regions the outlook applies to:
- Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas;
- Northwest Passage (please specify the specific route);
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route);
- Barents-Greenland Seas; or
- High Arctic (north of 85N).

2. Estimate of the Ice Season Evolution
   Provide an estimate of the ice season evolution (including prevalent or
   expected ice types) from now to the time of the summer sea ice minimum
   in September. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
   lighter or heavier than those of last summer (2008). Ice condition
   assessment categories are:
   i. Light Ice Conditions - Melt onset is earlier than normal, ice
   retreat is more rapid than normal, and / or ice concentrations over
   the course of the season are below average. Ideally, the outlook
   would be more specific about which of these applies and also
   indicate whether the assessment references a specific activity, such
   as different types of ship traffic, subsistence hunting, etc.
   ii. Medium Ice Conditions - Neither heavy nor light ice
   concentrations.
   iii. Heavy Ice Year - Melt onset is later than normal, ice retreat
   is slower than normal, and / or ice concentrations over the course
   of the season are above average. Ideally, the outlook would be more
   specific about which of these applies.

3. Assessment of the Timing of Freeze-up
   i. What is your general assessment of the timing of freeze-up?
   ii. Will the onset of ice formation in the fall be earlier or later
   than normal?
   iii. Are any anomalies anticipated in the regional pattern of
   freeze-up?

4. Outline of Methods / Techniques (Optional)
   i. What is the regional outlook based on (statistical model,
   heuristic approach, traditional knowledge, etc.)?

5. Improving Outlook Accuracy (Optional)
   i. What information would be needed to improve the accuracy of your
   Regional Outlook?

Regional Outlook submissions should be sent via email, with the words
REGIONAL OUTLOOK in the subject line, to:
Hajo Eicken
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

The submission deadline for the August report is Tuesday, 4 August 2009.

Further information about the Sea Ice Outlook is available at the
website: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook.

Or by contacting:
Jim Overland, Core Integration Group Lead
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov

Hajo Eicken, Core Integration Group
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu

Helen Wiggins, Sea Ice Outlook Central Office
Email: helen [at] arcus.org