Date

June Report (Based on May Data)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 7 June 2013

For further information, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook (SIO)
organizers are pleased to announce the launch of the 2013 SIO season.
The SEARCH SIO is an international project that provides a monthly
synthesis of estimates of the September arctic sea ice minimum:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

We are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the first
report of the season, the June report (based on May data). We encourage
past and new contributors to participate. The submission deadline is
Friday, 7 June 2013 and all submissions should be sent to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at helen [at] arcus.org. Submission guidelines are below.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Extent Projection
    Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea
    ice extent (in million square kilometers). Please also include any
    relevant information on ice thickness (or age), if available.

  2. Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model
    ensemble runs, etc.).

  3. Rationale
    Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.

  4. Executive Summary
    Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in
    two or three sentences.

  5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available)
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. Error estimates
    are included in the summary bar chart of outlook estimates, as
    appropriate.

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

  1. Region of Interest
    While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please
    specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions:
- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
- Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea

Shipping Routes:
- Northwest Passage
- Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)

  1. Sea Ice Parameter
    Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological
    stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,
    length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and
    ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be
    similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,
    earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice
    concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up)
    than those of summer 2012.

  2. Outline of Methods/Techniques
    Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model,
    traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology
    and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.

  3. Estimate of Forecast Skill
    If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill,
    uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

  4. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
    What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided
    in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your
    prediction?

ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins,
ARCUS, at helen [at] arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as
relevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]
OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

An MS Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and
extracting images for the website - we will not edit your individual
submission and will not post your Word documents.

Pan-Arctic and Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 7 June 2013.

For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

Or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen [at] arcus.org

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