2016 Sea Ice Outlook
August Report Available
Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN)
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
The report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/august
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
The August report for the 2016 Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) is now available. The
SIO is an activity of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN,
http://www.arcus.org/sipn) as a contribution to the Study of
Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH,http://www.arcus.org/search-program).
The goal of the SIO is to improve Arctic sea ice prediction on seasonal
time-scales. This month's report was developed by lead author Jim
Overland (NOAA) with contributions from the rest of the SIPN Leadership
Team (https://www.arcus.org/sipn/leadership).
Organizers thank all who contributed to the 40 Outlooks received for
this report, which includes 39 pan-Arctic outlooks (3 of which also
provided Alaska-regional outlooks), and one additional regional-only
outlook. Five contributions included gridded fields. The median
pan-Arctic Outlook value for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.4
million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.7 million square
kilometers. Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, mixed methods, estimates based on trends, and two
informal polls.
This month's report also includes:
- Discussion about dynamical model contributions and their variance;
- Discussion on current conditions, recent atmospheric conditions, and
probability forecasts for late summer meteorological conditions; - Discussion on sea ice conditions in the Alaska sector as well as the
Outlooks that focused on that region; - Key statements from each individual Outlook; and
- Links to view or download individual contributions.
The complete report is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2016/august.
This is the third monthly SIO for the 2016 season. A webinar to discuss
the 2016 melt season is planned for early October, details will be
announced via ArcticInfo and the SIPN mailing list:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/mailing-list.
For more information, please contact:
Betsy Turner-Bogren, ARCUS
Email: betsy [at] arcus.org
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