HARC Online Workshops - 5-9 November 2001

Overview
Attendees

"Are weather patterns in the Arctic changing, and if so, what are the implications of these changes?"

Workshop Purpose

Climate change in the Arctic is the subject of considerable attention and research. Changes in patterns of temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and winds are likely to have profound impacts on Arctic ecosystems and people. But in the focus on climate, we overlook the fact that people typically experience the day-to-day conditions of "weather" rather than the seasonal and annual averages that are reflected in "climate." In particular, changes in extreme weather events can have significant consequences for Arctic residents and ecosystems, but these events may not be apparent in the monthly or seasonal averages used by climatologists.

Indigenous elders in the Arctic have reported numerous changes in weather patterns over the course of their lives. For example, the weather is widely seen as less predictable than it used to be. There are more storms, and fewer days of calm weather. Wind direction shifts more suddenly, and there is lightning in places where thunderstorms never occurred fifty years ago. In many cases, these changes may represent new insights and potentially valuable contributions to climate change research, so it is important to obtain as much specific information about these changes as possible. In addition to answering research questions, it is important to consider the impacts of changing climate and weather. If the weather is less predictable, what does this mean for hunters going on a trip for several days across the sea ice? What does it mean for a ship captain navigating Arctic waters, or for airplane traffic in remote areas? If there is more lightning in northern areas, are forest and tundra fires more likely, and what are the impacts if they are?

"Although climate change is often discussed in terms of gradual trends in temperature and precipitation, both indigenous knowledge and ice-core records paint a picture of more dramatically variable weather conditions."
–People and the Arctic: A Prospectus for Research on the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System.

Discussion Summary: 5 November 2001

Thanks to all the participants for a good first day's discussion. We are pleased to see people are figuring out how to navigate around the site, add comments, and start new topics. Among the topics that generated a lot of discussion were storm patterns, and how people have changed their habits. Both offer several ideas for further discussion, and we are curious to see where those discussions take us.

The effects of storms on coastal erosion is a big topic, and brings in questions about the ways in which storm patterns have changed, and the effects of changes in sea ice and other parameters which make the impact of storms greater or lesser. Storm patterns (or lack of pattern) in Tuk and Nome were brought up. Has anyone looked in other areas? What parameters have you studied? What parameters SHOULD we be studying? Please chime in with sources, ideas, opinions!

For people's habits, Shari Fox described some of the things people do differently in Nunavut now as a result of changes in weather and climate, such as taking more supplies in the expectation of encountering severe weather and being stuck. Have others found similar changes? Have you had to make changes in your own approach to field work? Again, please join in and help us explore this topic! Official weather forecasts did not fare too well in the discussions today. We have not yet entrained official forecasters into the workshop. It might help if there were suggestions on how official forecasts could be made more useful to local residents. While we need to acknowledge that weather prediction is not an exact science and that forecasts will always have some errors, there may be ways in which forecasts can be better tailored to the needs of Arctic communities. Suggestions along these lines might might lead to beneficial interaction between forecasters and the Arctic users of the forecasts.

Coastal erosion came up in several contexts. Since coastal erosion can link marine ecosystems with terrestrial processes, it is potentially an excellent link between different parts of the Arctic system. (NSF programs like the Arctic System Science Program have encouraged such linkages). Several discussants who are scientists pointed out the that effects of erosion on marine ecosystems are quite complex. Have coastal residents been able to detect marine consequences of coastal erosion events (i.e., in connection with storms)? For example, have major coastal storms been followed by noticeable changes in marine biological activity or changes in harvests?

The spring/summer retreat of sea ice came up in several discussions. Coastal residents have detected changes over the past few decades, and scientists (e.g., modelers) recognize the need to understand better the key controlling factors. This seems like an excellent topic for further exchanges between coastal residents and climate scientists. What indicators are most useful to residents in predicting the timing of sea ice break-up, i.e., how can one predict an early break-up vs. a late break-up?

Finally, the extent to which changing technology has affected peoples' perceived changes of weather is a key topic of this workshop. One example is the perception of wind as boats change from wind-powered to motor-powered (noted by Henry Huntington). Are there other examples of ways ways in which technology or lifestyle changes may be contributing to a sense that weather is changing?

Henry Huntington and John Walsh
Moderators

Discussion Summary: 6 November 2001

Thanks to all for a good second day. The plan for the rest of the week is to continue the discussions tomorrow, after which the moderators will prepare an outline of the workshop summary, which will emphasize conclusions and research opportunities. These will be neither exhaustive nor prescriptive--they are intended to capture some of the discussion and to inspire people to write proposals to HARC (and elsewhere as appropriate!). On Thursday, everyone will have a chance to review the outline and comment on it. We'll modify it accordingly, and post a new version on Friday. This process isn't intended to take away from the discussions, but to give everyone a chance to contribute to the workshop summary.As for the discussions themselves, we're delighted to see the many directions you all have taken the various ideas. The questions of predictability (the inherent stability and patterns of the weather system) and predictive skill (the ability of the individual to read the indicators of weather) and the relationship between the two offer some fascinating research opportunities. The question is, how exactly do we go about studying these phenomena?

An interesting subtheme of the prediction topic is the interplay between technology and the impacts of weather. On the one hand, technology introduces new vulnerabilities to weather (e.g., modern transportation is arguably more impacted by day-to-day weather than traditional modes, more sheltered living arrangements change vulnerabilities), but technology enables those in isolated areas to receive information about changing weather conditions. On balance, are Arctic residents becoming more vulnerable or less vulnerable to rapid changes of weather and to extremes of weather? Input on this topic would be most welcome by the impact assessment community.Another productive avenue is the way in which people perceive, understand, and respond to weather. Many confounders have been discussed, relating to changes in lifestyles, equipment, and the influence of "outside" opinions. On the other hand, indicators such as timing of break-up are not as susceptible to subjective influence, and many such observations have been documented. Has anyone compiled a list of specific observations of changes? Has anyone looked at these changes in light of influences on perception? And how can we follow up on these studies, for example by using observations of change as hypotheses for analyzing weather records?

A topic that surfaced independently (and intriguingly) in two different themes is the way in which perceptions of change are based on combinations of weather variables. The specific example cited was the perception of temperature change, which is dependent on sunshine, wind, and perhaps other physical variables. The intriguing aspect seems to be that trends of sunshine and/or wind may be reducing the perception of the cooling that has occurred in eastern Canada -- Ray Bradley reported the results of a data analysis addressing wind chill, and Shari Fox described the impact of stronger solar radiation.

Another area that came up is the way in which weather events can have lasting effects on the physical environment. For example, winter and spring weather appear to affect sea ice formation the following fall. Fall winds in turn can affect ice formation and can blow snow on top of forming ice, which in turn can affect break-up. These types of effects can provide the basis for original and exciting contributions to long-range prediction of surface phenomena. Jamie Morison mentioned a study that has indicated connections across seasons in the Arctic Ocean, and there may be other examples that directly affect Arctic residents. Has anyone taken a systematic look at these types of phenomena? What have you found?

Discussion Summary: 7 November 2001

Thank you all for another extremely interesting day of discussions. Rather than summarizing today's main threads, we have prepared an outline for the final summary from this workshop. This report will not attempt to summarize the research on which people have based their comments, nor will it attempt to re-create the discussions (which we plan to keep available on line). Instead, we will draw on the various interesting points of the discussion, particularly those that seem to point to important research opportunities. We welcome comments and revisions to this outline, in addition to continuation of the discussions already taking place.

Outline of Weather Workshop Report – Draft for Comment

Intro
Brief description of the workshop and the purpose of the report.
Weather Variability and Predictability
Several aspects of the weather discussion offer ripe areas for research:

Storms: changes over time in patterns, characteristics, frequency
Variability: is weather more variable now than in the past? How? Why?
Predictability and predictive skill: is the weather inherently less predictable? Are weather forecasts increasing in accuracy? Are traditional methods of weather prediction less reliable now than in the past? Why?

Traditional Understanding of Weather
Studies of traditional knowledge and perspectives on weather and climate raise a number of topics for further research:

Changes in weather: a systematic documentation of the types and nature of changes that have been observed, using direct and indirect indicators
Changes in behavior: documenting the ways in which people have changed their habits as a result of any changes in weather
Technological and social influences: assessing the ways in which perceptions of weather and people's interactions with weather and climate have changed over time due to changes in
- technology
- lifestyle
- influences of the media

Perceived changes in weather often involve a combination of factors (temperature and wind, temperature and sunshine, etc.). How have the interactions between variables affected residents' perceptions of changes?

Future Planning
Describing changes in weather is a starting point, but using this information to develop effective studies of changing weather is a separate challenge:

Extreme events: assess the possibilities and likelihood, where possible, and evaluate potential impacts and mitigating measures; extreme events on the local scale may not be detectable in the standard suites of conventional observations; how can information on extreme weather events be compiled in ways that are (a) relevant to residents, and (b) amenable to meaningful assessments of changes?
Climate & weather shifts: assess trends and potential impacts and mitigating measures
Weather forecasting: determine how weather forecasts are used and what improvements can be made both in forecasts and in their communication to Arctic residents. Additionally, what information could be included in weather forecasts to make the forecasts more useful to Arctic residents?
Methods for extending weather forecasts to include information on local-scale weather would be useful, especially for locations where human activities occur; strategies and feasibility of such extensions of forecasts should be explored
Collaborative processes: develop ways to conduct these and other exercises collaboratively with Arctic residents (models exist for this, it's a question of applying them here)

Linking Weather and Climate
Examining the links between weather (short-term events) and climate (long-term averages and processes) offers great opportunities for understanding climate change and its manifestations. Increased variability may be occurring in the absence of changes of the climatic means, so methods for quantifying variability in meaningful ways seem to need more attention.

Long-term effects of weather events: examine the influence of weather events on subsequent processes such as sea ice formation and break up, snow accumulation and melt
Cumulative effects of repeated weather events (e.g., daily/hourly) data rather than simple climatic averages.
Climate models and weather: can we improve climate studies and assessments by taking weather into greater account, or is this done already?
Ecosystem effects: freeze-thaw cycles and freezing rain are among the weather events that can have dramatic effects on ecosystems, an area for which more research is needed

Conclusion
Exhortation to submit proposals to NSF for HARC research!

Henry Huntington and John Walsh
Moderators

Discussion Summary: 8 November 2001

Today's discussion was lively and we thank all of you who contributed your insight and ideas to the forum. The discussion today embarked on some interesting new directions. Some of the topics covered included:

Changing composition of snow and sea ice
How retreating ice will effect weather patterns
Importance of and changes in the occurrence of fog
Defining data that are important for measuring climate change, weather change and for modeling both
Influence of new technology on residents' perception of weather by changing the distance, rate, and duration of travel
How residents' can best be reached with weather forecasts or warnings
Post-doc announcement for position studying arctic climate and climate impacts.

Tomorrow (Friday) is the last day of the official workshop and Friday's summary will be the last of the daily summaries.

John Walsh & Henry Huntington
Moderators

Discussion Summary: 9 November 2001

Thank you all for a great workshop! We appreciate all the time people put in to read the posts and to contribute. We hope you have found it as useful and stimulating as we have. We hope the discussions have inspired ideas for proposals, and perhaps introduced potential collaborators to one another.

Today's discussions brought up some new topics, and made it clear that we have not exhausted the topic of Arctic weather. Some of the recent ideas include:

Insect abundance as a function of weather patterns and other ecosystem variables
Community-based monitoring as a way to create better weather records across the Arctic
The dynamics of storm surges in relation to wind, the presence and orientation of ice, and the selection of village sites conducive to marine hunting
Exploring these topics in the European Arctic where human activities are markedly different than in the North American Arctic
Ecological sensitivity to specific weather patterns, rather than seasonal averages
The importance of snowfall in ice formation and ground freezing
The possibility of using non-traditional data sources to explore topics such as extreme events

What's Next

As previously mentioned, the forum will remain open for further discussions. The poster session will also continue for those who are interested in submitting material. One participant suggested focused, one- or two-day follow-up discussions on particular points. The HARC Science Management Office will explore the feasibility of this idea and let everyone know. We are also interested in ideas for additional workshops like this one. Two more are scheduled at present: Treeline (Nov. 26-30), and Sea Ice (Dec. 3-7).

The moderators will draft a short workshop report and send it to all participants for review prior to Thanksgiving. Comments will be due by December 7, with the final report ready for distribution on the web by December 14.

Once more, we welcome any feedback about the workshop and the discussion format. The HARC Science Management Office will send out an email survey soon--your cooperation in replying is greatly appreciated!

Finally, we as moderators would like to thank Renee Crain and Wendy Warnick for their outstanding behind-the-scenes services. Without their dedication and expertise, the workshop would not have been possible.

Thank you again for joining us this week!